Thursday, 19 March 2015

Acting on global warming

Once you leave the known science the second part, the one applied by politicians, is cost benefit analysis (CBA). That means not basing your plans on knowns but possible alternatives. You lay them all out, then any actions, and measure the total for each. The only science remaining then, which unfortunately is of the very lowest usable level, is the chances of each scenario happening, which is actually not possible to know within reasonable bounds.

Our biggest mistakes were acting on the worst case scenarios rather than the mid or best. We have already paid our fines and taken our punishments 50-100 years before we know if we were even guilty. That was a result of politicians taking over and screwing the science and the scientists. And no one needs to be a scientist to play out the alternative results, that is pure data crunching.

I think by now we know the details. Make fossil fuel more expensive, or ban some altogether.  CBA- everyone has less access to energy and everyone pays more right now, the poor suffer the most as it is an essential. Take taxes and subsidise wind, solar and biofuel. Would wind and solar exist for general use without subsidies? Almost certainly not. Could they ever supply a constant and variable on demand base load? Never. What does biofuel replace? Food and land for food crops, making food shortages and the remainder more expensive. Harm today for no known benefits now or ever.

These are the major plans of the Kyoto Protocol, plus carbon trading and credits, both created by Enron and both deemed fraudulent by the court who prosecuted them for it. Cost, everything, benefit, total loss of money to big businesses. Result, no change in CO2 emissions since Kyoto began being implemented. Did they decide all their plans didn't work so they'd have to give them up? Of course not, if taxing doesn't reduce emissions tax more. If it doesn't still reduce them they've made a heck of a lot of money anyway, and that's a good thing. But not for us.

No comments:

Post a Comment